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[Music]

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[Applause]

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all right saludos everyone thank you for

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joining me and Jen on this very last day

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of long apps icon so Vincent gave you an

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introduction into kind of a global view

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of the potential forming brines through

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deliquescent on Mars I'm not going to

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consider the local view specifically

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with implications for jezero crater

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since we're sending a robot there and I

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would like to get all this data so just

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a quick review can mana has already

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talked about this but thus far there's

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only really two missions that have been

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able to give us meteorological data and

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tell us than the potential stability of

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Bryon's at these areas and that is the

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Curiosity rover which is equatorial

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basically to about minus 4 and the

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Phoenix lander whoo that's the other one

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I was knew I was gonna do that and the

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Phoenix one which is up here about 68

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degrees north so that is polar these are

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the two that has given us meteorological

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data these are the only two that we can

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then use the T and the relative humidity

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in order to figure something out about

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the local scale environment and if

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Brian's are stable there and then just

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so you can see March 2020 will be going

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around here and ExoMars on this side so

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we're we're getting somewhere in between

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curiosity and Phoenix and I'm gonna get

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into why that tweeners zone is important

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but just as a quick introduction into

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the phase diagram since I will be

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showing this a lot so when we're looking

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at calcium perchlorate here's the it's

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phase diagram at a eutectic temperature

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198 Kelvin and an activity 0.53 I keep

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doing that that that you tectors right

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here the black line you see here that is

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the ice line so something important to

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note is that Mars rovers give you

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relative minute II but with respect to

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ice okay the activity of a brine can be

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related to the relative humidity but

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only with respect to liquid all right so

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you're divining

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thing by a piece a device versus a piece

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add of liquid so when you're talking

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about the ice line you're talking about

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relative mean this line is relative nity

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with respect to ice equals 100% on an RH

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of liquid diagram okay keep that in mind

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this blue line that's the deliquescent

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relative humidity if we cross that line

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that's when we would be able to have a

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liquid now as vincent mentioned you do

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end up having metastable solutions and

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the hysteresis effects so if i'm

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trucking along here i'm a tea in an RH

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and I suddenly cross here yeah I'm a

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liquid many experiments from Katy prim

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renege off Daniel noting even from the

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group f9 has shown if you cross this

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line you don't immediately become ice

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you kind of have like I imagine it as a

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slushy I haven't seen pictures from

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these experiments but I think slushies

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so around here you have a little slushy

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and then the temperatures and RH starts

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swinging back and you should see

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erratically right around here give up

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your water but you don't you have to

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wait until you hit the erh the

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efflorescence relative humidity so

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that's a hysteresis effect so you have

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liquid and then you continue having

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liquid until you pass this line on this

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side so the liquid stability area is

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efflorescence relative humidity so

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that's where you lose the the liquid and

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it goes back so the salt will transition

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from the aqueous solution back into the

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solid crystalline site all right so now

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that we got that introduction into the

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face diagram we're going to start

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putting pretty dots on it so this is the

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Phoenix data and run has shown this to

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you

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this was the newly recalibrated data

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thank you head man for doing that

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because the Phoenix data made no sense

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to me when we saw it but as you can see

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here if you put the raw data and then so

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that's what you're seeing in the dark

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purple and then I took the early

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averages and that is in the pretty

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magenta and you can see that at Phoenix

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we we have several points that nicely

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cross into that liquid state and so it

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this wouldn't mean that you would just

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have a liquid there it means you now

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again like I mentioned have to wait

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until you hit back into the Year

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so a Phoenix things are a little bit

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easy let's compare this to an assault

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ooh

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MSL is tough alright so here and here's

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the other reason why MSL is tough error

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bars whoa that's a thing

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so MSL actually um within error a

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relative humidity measurement somewhere

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down here could be negative and so when

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that happens I say you are unreal the

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instrument probably is a little shaky so

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I throw that data out that's why you're

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not seeing things going this way because

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with an error that data point makes no

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sense also side note with an error you

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can have relative humidity with respect

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to liquid of about a thousand percent

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and I thought that was weird so

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engineers please make better instruments

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thank you so but if you account for the

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error bars for these points I have drawn

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boxes around two points that within

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error you would actually be in the

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liquid state

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those will happen in SOL 12:32 and Sol

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1311 specifically during the morning and

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late evening I then have a fully coupled

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heat and mass transfer model and so I

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decided to look at pairs of albedo and

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thermal inertia that were at least kind

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of seen by MSL just to see and be able

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to predict for amasau where it could

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potentially see liquid formation and

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this is so unlike for Vince's plot where

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he showed percent of year that was at

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the surface my percent of year is summed

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over the subsurface up to the surface so

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I'm setting up all the potential hours

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that could have happened there in the so

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that's what you're seeing here in color

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the percent of the year so up here

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apparently it's happy-go-lucky so if you

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were high albedo really low thermal

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inertia that would be great however I

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looked at a map of Mars and I did not

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see that combination so forget about

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that in the white dots you see the

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combinations of thermal inertia and I'll

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be though the MSL actually saw so most

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of the time it's in this black zone so

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that means nope nope but over here on

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thermal inertia 180 albedo point one one

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soul twelve thirty two it turns out you

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do have

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and remember that's also the data point

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in the previous plot that I said with an

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error it would be in liquid so the model

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says yay

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and then Vinson had told you that when

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you're considering diffusion into the

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regolith the reasons kind of easy on

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Mars is because things look like a beach

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I'm from Puerto Rico so I'm used to

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seeing these kind of things except I

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demand the actual ocean there and the

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pina colada and that's another thing

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today but this would be sold 12:30 to

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where potentially MSL had trucked over

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from forming liquids there okay

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introduction into you those two those

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are the extremes right something you

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could Turin something polar and now

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we're gonna go over to March 2020 which

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will be somewhere in between ish I think

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it was like 20 degrees north latitude

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and what I want to look at is apply

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these same techniques except in this

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case also use a GCM to be able to

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predict what the surface condition would

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be at jezero crater see do we ever cross

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that DRH line and then once we do how

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long do you have a liquid until you go

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back to that erh line and are these

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liquids habitable to life as we know it

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and I think Vince already gave the

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punchline away which is nope nope Segen

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all right so I have this this is my part

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down here this and by the way I am no

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James

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Tuttle Kean I am NOT an artist this is

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my ability to be an artist a box with a

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pretty cloud on top and that cloud was

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made by PowerPoint thank you so

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Alejandro Soto has ran the Mars Worf

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model for us here you have so it's a

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resolution 5 by 5 52 vertical levels I

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then take the lower values for T and P

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h2o I allow that to diffuse through a

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regolith column I go several times the

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annual skin depth that way I can

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actually see the full diffusion and it's

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not only in heat but it's also a mass

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and then my vertical resolution there's

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1 centimeters and it's very tiny time

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steps but I saved the conditions hourly

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and then within every element I check if

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the TN RH combination actually allows

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for deliquescent

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so here is the quick glimpse of these

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results in the gray scaling you're

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seeing from one centimeter all the way

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over to 10 centimeters and as you can

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see we get really close so close but not

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quite there yet now as we all know

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though GCMs have knobs on them and then

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you can just go and go tweak tweak tweak

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to the rhythm of the beat hey and then

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things work so because what if something

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random happens at the near surface what

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if there was a dust storm what if the

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thermal inertia and albedo locally is a

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little bit different than what's

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considered a GCM but just to show you

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that within the tolerance level of a

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Kelvin and a 1% in our age we do

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actually enter the liquid zone here and

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really within numerical error going plus

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or minus one Kelvin and going plus or

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minus RH 1% that's that's with an error

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so that's fine so within the error and

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within knob twisting we would be able to

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form liquids at jezzer crater these type

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of liquids would be there between LS 160

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and 190 forming in the late evening and

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shortly after midnight and only for

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about 0.6% of the years so not a whole

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lot but something now going back to that

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special region because I said are these

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liquids habitable so just remember we

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were really close here and I want to

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come up here so yeah that's not gonna

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happen but here's another way of looking

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at it if you have a liquid on Mars and

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it's stable against boiling and

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evaporation that means it has to be in

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equilibrium with the near surface

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atmosphere so then if I am at this box

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at the edge of this box right there

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where T's 255 Kelvin the activity of

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that solution is 0.6 for the activity

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for an a solution at an activity 0.6 to

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be stable against the atmosphere the

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relative humidity of the atmosphere plus

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then be 60% with respect to liquid so at

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that temperature the pH - oh you need to

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do that is 90 Pascal's if you find

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somewhere on Mars where that happens

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please let me know

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cuz yeah that's not gonna happen this is

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Puerto Rico PR is habitable I agree you

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should all go there so um but I'm a very

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quantitative person so I wanted to at

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least be able to compare MSL Jezz Roe

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and Phoenix so I'm going to suggest and

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I'm very open to suggestions from you to

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is a metric based on the special region

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quote-unquote that NASA is using to

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define whether an area should be

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protected or not and so this is a very

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basic metric where we're looking at the

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distance away from that special region

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and I normalized that such that at the

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furthest point here zero relative

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humidity and really cold 150 Kelvin I

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defined that to be equal one and once

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you do that then you can scale

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everything else have the distances away

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and then I was told that people when

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they consider zero which in my model

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would be zero distance would be there

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when people say zero that means bad so I

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said fine say 1 minus distance and now

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one equals good and zero goes bad great

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so that's what I did here so that's why

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the colors aren't following the quote

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unquote distance so then if we apply

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this metric to J's Rho Gale Crater and

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Phoenix landing site

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I find the mode from this metric you can

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see that Phoenix is happy-go-lucky up

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about point six Gale craters you know as

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expected 0.25 very low and J's Row is

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not quite in between but it is much

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better than Gale so if I were march 2020

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and I'd be roving around I'd think that

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there might be a potential reformed

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liquids but those liquids are not

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habitable to life as we know it but

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maybe we don't know life quite well yet

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so Brian's May format jezero crater

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during that period the brines that are

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produced are not special at all and I am

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suggesting that maybe in order to

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quantify the distribution of habitable

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quote-unquote environments on Mars if we

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were actually keen and using this

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special Regents definition that maybe we

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can use this new metric to actually do

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that and before I let you all go I am

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the lead convener for this conference

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down here first billion years

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habitability happening Big Sky Montana

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we're gonna go into Yellowstone National

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Park we're gonna have fun and then we're

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going to talk about how life could have

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originated on earth

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in other planets and even with extension

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so exoplanets abstract deadline is July

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3rd so please submit thank you very much